From the observatory

Insights & market forecasts

Data-driven breakdowns of where the Magic: The Gathering singles market is headed — risers, fallers, and the catalysts behind the moves.

• The Hobbit Buy Window: Right on Average, Wrong Where the Money Is
  We told readers to wait four to eight weeks for the Hobbit dip. The cheap cards kept falling; the chase cards bottomed at release and bounced. Every number, graded — plus a new dated call.
• The Hobbit Release Week: We Said Presale Was the Top. All 44 Cards Fell.
  Ten days ago we published every Hobbit card at its presale price and said to wait. The set releases Friday. Every one of the 44 printings we track is down — median -69% — and here is the scoreboard, the correction we had to make, and what the model forecasts now.
• The Hobbit MTG Set: Presale Prices, Chase Cards, and What History Says About Buying Now
  The Hobbit (HOB) releases August 14. Live presale prices for every spoiled chase card — a $209 Smaug, a $190 Thorin, The One Ring reprint — plus the Lord of the Rings precedent and a playbook for the post-release dip.
• New on Tiresias: Track Your Collection, Get Alerts, and See the Model Graded
  A tour of everything new on Project Tiresias — collection tracking with live P&L, price and forecast alerts, a Sell/Hold Advisor, a public model track record, and three new plans. The forecasts stay free.
• How Our AI Predicts Magic: The Gathering Card Prices
  A look under the hood: how Project Tiresias turns 90 days of price history into 7, 14, and 30-day Magic forecasts with confidence intervals — and what those ratings really mean.
• MTG Finance: How to Predict Magic Card Prices
  Will your Magic cards go up in value? A practical MTG finance guide to the signals that move singles, the risks to watch (reprints!), and how to put AI forecasts to work.
• MTG Reprint Risk: How to Spot Cards About to Crash
  Reprints are the fastest way to lose money in MTG finance. How to gauge a card's reprint risk before you buy, which cards resist reprints, and how forecasts factor it in.
• Marvel Super Heroes & the MTG Singles Market: What's Spiking, What to Buy, What to Hold
  MTG's Marvel Super Heroes set is here. We break down which older Magic cards it already spiked (the Scurry of Squirrels effect), which set singles are worth buying at release, and which to hold off on — with current prices.
• The Biggest MTG Risers & Fallers of the Next 30 Days
  Our Magic AI forecast projects the biggest Magic: The Gathering singles set to rise and fall over the next 30 days — with the full video breakdown and how the model calls each move.