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Receipts
We Called the Hobbit Presale Top. We Got the Buy Window Half Wrong.
On August 10 we told readers to wait four to eight weeks for the Hobbit dip. Since release day the median tracked printing is down, so half of that call was right. But the cards people actually asked about — the chase mythics — did not fall further; they bottomed at release and bounced. Every figure below is pulled live from the same 35 printings, priced on presale day, release day, and today.
The call we made
On August 10, four days before The Hobbit hit paper, we published every tracked printing at its presale price and wrote this:
The historical buy window is roughly four to eight weeks post-release — mid-September into October for this set.
That is a checkable claim with a date on it, which is the only kind worth making. Here is how it has held up, 11 days after release.
What held: presale really was the top
Across the 35 printings we can price on all three dates — 2026-07-31, release day, and today — the median printing is −77.1% against its presale price. Nobody who bought presale is ahead. That part of the call was right, and it was the part that mattered most.
A note on a number that changed: our August 10 piece reported a −69% median across 44 printings. This one reports −77.1% across 35. Neither figure is revised. That piece required a price on July 31 and August 10; this one requires a price on July 31, August 14 and today, which is a stricter filter over a longer window. They are built by different rules and measure different things, so we are showing both rather than quietly replacing one with the other.
What did not hold: the window was wrong where the money is
Since release day the median tracked printing is −10.9%. On average, waiting paid. But that average hides the finding:
| Price on release day | Printings | Median since release | Rose since release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $5 | 17 | −35.7% | 4 / 17 |
| $5 - $25 | 5 | −18.8% | 1 / 5 |
| $25+ | 13 | −0.3% | 6 / 13 |
The cheap cards did exactly what we said: they kept bleeding. The expensive cards did not. They bottomed in release week and went sideways-to-up — which means a reader who followed our advice on a chase card paid more for waiting on roughly half of them: 6 of the 13 $25+ printings are above their release-day price, not below it.
The cards, then and now
Every row is a specific printing, linked to its live page. Several Hobbit cards share a name across different printings at very different prices, so the set and collector number are shown for each.
| Printing | 2026-07-31 | Release day | Today | Since release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thorin, Mountain-king The Hobbit #114 · foil | $50.69 | $4.69 | $7.30 | +55.7% |
| Thorin, Mountain-king The Hobbit #243 · normal | $189.97 | $20.84 | $28.55 | +37.0% |
| Swamp The Hobbit #196 · foil | $3.00 | $0.52 | $0.67 | +28.8% |
| The One Ring The Hobbit Eternal #44 · normal | $148.28 | $118.98 | $144.57 | +21.5% |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart The Hobbit #247 · normal | $166.25 | $64.97 | $77.95 | +20.0% |
| Plains The Hobbit #194 · foil | $3.00 | $0.48 | $0.56 | +16.7% |
| The One Ring The Hobbit Eternal #44 · foil | $183.32 | $140.62 | $161.30 | +14.7% |
| Sauron, the Dark Lord The Hobbit Eternal #36 · foil | $79.99 | $38.09 | $43.12 | +13.2% |
| Smaug the Magnificent The Hobbit #110 · foil | $114.00 | $33.81 | $36.64 | +8.4% |
| Island The Hobbit #195 · normal | $2.00 | $1.07 | $1.14 | +6.5% |
| Smaug the Magnificent The Hobbit #229 · normal | $216.94 | $52.36 | $52.73 | +0.7% |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart The Hobbit #170 · foil | $75.00 | $14.69 | $14.69 | +0.0% |
| Sauron, the Dark Lord The Hobbit Eternal #36 · normal | $49.99 | $37.49 | $37.36 | −0.3% |
| Mountain The Hobbit #197 · foil | $3.00 | $0.59 | $0.58 | −1.7% |
| Thorin, Mountain-king The Hobbit #114 · normal | $33.72 | $4.58 | $4.49 | −2.0% |
| Smaug the Magnificent The Hobbit #110 · normal | $73.37 | $33.56 | $31.35 | −6.6% |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart The Hobbit #234 · normal | $158.33 | $30.68 | $28.52 | −7.0% |
| My Precious // Allure of Power The Hobbit #176 · foil | $21.83 | $3.04 | $2.71 | −10.9% |
| Bilbo, Thief in the Night The Hobbit #33 · normal | $32.51 | $22.45 | $18.23 | −18.8% |
| Bilbo, Thief in the Night The Hobbit #219 · normal | $107.47 | $30.69 | $24.64 | −19.7% |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart The Hobbit #170 · normal | $32.57 | $14.75 | $11.32 | −23.3% |
| Bilbo, Thief in the Night The Hobbit #33 · foil | $74.91 | $27.16 | $20.33 | −25.1% |
| Tom Bombadil The Hobbit Eternal #38 · foil | $79.95 | $27.47 | $18.96 | −31.0% |
| My Precious // Allure of Power The Hobbit #176 · normal | $30.05 | $2.82 | $1.89 | −33.0% |
| Riddles in the Dark The Hobbit #53 · normal | $5.60 | $0.70 | $0.45 | −35.7% |
| Riddles in the Dark The Hobbit #292 · normal | $37.99 | $1.64 | $0.96 | −41.5% |
| Tom, Bert, and William The Hobbit #312 · normal | $36.98 | $1.37 | $0.78 | −43.1% |
| Mountain The Hobbit #197 · normal | $1.99 | $0.79 | $0.42 | −46.8% |
| My Precious // Allure of Power The Hobbit #235 · foil | $24.20 | $10.79 | $5.72 | −47.0% |
| Plains The Hobbit #314 · normal | $4.18 | $1.71 | $0.88 | −48.5% |
| Plains The Hobbit #313 · normal | $3.85 | $1.72 | $0.88 | −48.8% |
| Plains The Hobbit #316 · normal | $3.85 | $1.85 | $0.91 | −50.8% |
| Plains The Hobbit #315 · normal | $4.18 | $1.74 | $0.76 | −56.3% |
| An Unexpected Party // At the Door The Hobbit #289 · normal | $30.99 | $1.82 | $0.64 | −64.8% |
| Tom Bombadil The Hobbit Eternal #38 · normal | $49.99 | $40.87 | $13.61 | −66.7% |
Why the split happens
Supply and demand arrive on different schedules. Boxes keep getting opened for weeks after launch, and that flood lands hardest on commons and low-end rares — there is no bid underneath them. The chase mythics are different: a queue of people were already waiting for the dip, and when it came they took it. The bottom for those cards was not a window, it was a moment.
What we got wrong, plainly
"Wait four to eight weeks" was right for the bulk of the set and wrong for the cards most people were actually asking about. We should have split the advice by price tier instead of giving one number for the whole set. If you waited on commons, you were rewarded. If you waited on the headline mythics, it cost you on roughly half of them — 6 of the 13 $25+ printings are above their release-day price.
The new call
The chase-card window has closed; those prices are unlikely to revisit their release-week lows. The sub-$5 band has further to fall, and we expect it to bottom in early-to-mid October rather than September.
We will re-run these exact 35 printings on 12 October 2026 and publish the result, right or wrong. The card list is frozen now, so that comparison will be like-for-like.
What this evidence is not
This is 35 printings from one set over 11 days. The middle band holds only 5 printings, which is too few to conclude anything on its own. Several of the risers are foils, where a handful of sales move the printed price. One set is an anecdote, not a timing rule — the reason we are putting a date on the next check is so it becomes evidence instead of a story.
Prices as of 2026-08-25. Not financial advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Hobbit buy-window call from August 10 turn out to be right?
Half right. The median tracked printing is −10.9% since release, so waiting on average paid off — but that average is driven by cheap cards that kept falling. The chase cards, priced $25 and up on release day, bottomed in release week and went flat on average since (−0.3% median), so the "wait four to eight weeks" advice cost money on roughly half of them — 6 of the 13 $25+ printings are above their release-day price.
Why does this article show a different percentage than the August 10 piece?
The August 10 article reported a -69% median across 44 printings measured from presale to that day. This one reports −77.1% across 35 printings that have a price on presale day, release day, and today — a stricter, longer-window cohort. Both numbers are accurate for what they measured; they are not directly comparable.
Should I buy Hobbit chase cards now?
Our read is that the chase-card window already closed — those prices bottomed at release and are unlikely to revisit those lows. The cheap end of the set still looks like it has further to fall, into early-to-mid October by our estimate. This is not financial advice; do your own research.
When will you check this call again?
On 12 October 2026, using the same 35 frozen printings tracked in this article, so the comparison is like-for-like.